@OP
IMO, Origin provides enough fresh content with the stock UO client these days without the need for shards to adopt custom patches, although fresh new maps are a pretty sweet deal.
In general, I think people are sick of shard-hopping when it involves patching customs, they'd much rather just change IP, log-in and get going straight away - hence the increase in number of shards offering GM starting skills and generous starting items.
The first shard I ever ran was heavily custom, the patches were around 500mb, this was back on UOR client 3.0.1 when you needed UO_RICE and verdata.mul was still a supported option.
The death of custom-based servers began after client 4.0.5b was released, with the official removal of verdata.mul support.
Consensus is right though, there is a strong need for a fresh ConnectUO style app, if Victor @
http://uoisnotdead.victornogueira.net/ decided to take that software further, it could probably be a big hit.